PEPP Seminar (November 13th, 2025): “When Protection Fails: Effects of Military Bases on Sexual Violence in Colombia” by Professor Sakina SHIBUYA
2025/11/20
2025/11/13 (Thur.)
Speaker: Prof. Sakina SHIBUYA
Chair: Prof. Vuong Nguyen
Time: 16:45~18:15
Title: When Protection Fails: Effects of Military Bases on Sexual Violence in Colombia
Format: Onsite 3K311
Abstract: Sexual violence committed by soldiers is ubiquitous across the world. This paper investigates the impact of military base presence on sexual violence, fertility, and child support disputes in Colombia, a nation with an experience of large-scale growth in military base presence. Using a dataset constructed from diverse sources, we track military base locations across Colombian municipalities from 1998 to 2016. We employ an event-study approach to identify the causal effects of military bases on host communities. Our analysis reveals that the presence of military bases significantly increases sexual violence, with a 72% rise in registered cases over the course of 16 years after the introduction of a military base. Despite this increase in sexual violence, we find no significant changes in fertility or child support disputes. These results are not driven by changes in population, security conditions, or reporting, but rather by the presence of government soldiers. This study contributes to broader discussions on the economic and institutional consequences of state-led violence by providing the causal link between soldier presence and sexual violence.
Full Paper: 20251113_SakinaShibuya_WhenProtectionFails.pdf
